BALRavens
8-4
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
12 mph
14
PITSteelers
5-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
3
0
3
16
Steelers
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
329
Total Plays
61
53
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.06
Passing Yards
94
264
Comp/Att
11/17(65%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.09
Rushing Yards
215
65
Rush Attempts
42
20
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.84
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-2.73
-3.71
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+22.1
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+108.6
Home QB Adjustment
-24.0
Away QB Adjustment
-132.6
Market Regression
+50.7
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-132.6
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-24.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
5
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U