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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ steelers week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-6
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
31
PITSteelers
9-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
11
10
27
Steelers
7
0
3
21
31

Spread

BAL logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
370
406
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
5.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.17
Passing Yards
248
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.10
Rushing Yards
122
127
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.15
-12.02
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.37
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
95
45
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-7.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.3
38
10/16
-2.5
29
10/23
-6.9
8
11/06
-3.4
24
11/10
1.8
63
11/20
1.6
61
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
11.7
99
12/12
4.3
80
12/18
-4.5
16
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
11.3
98
10/09
11.6
99
10/16
-6.9
8
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8

EPA

EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5

EPA

EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
3
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
16
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-6
L
L
U
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/10
21
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
L
U
11/27
5
W
W
U
12/04
32
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/18
1
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
18
W
W
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
-11
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U