BALRavens
8-6
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
31
PITSteelers
9-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
11
10
27
Steelers
7
0
3
21
31
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
406
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
5.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.17
Passing Yards
248
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.10
Rushing Yards
122
127
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.15
-12.02
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.37
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
95
45
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U