BALRavens
10-6
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
10 mph
17
PITSteelers
11-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
10
10
30
Steelers
3
6
0
6
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
387
Total Plays
55
73
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.09
Passing Yards
246
319
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.15
Rushing Yards
53
68
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.65
-12.47
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-13
-37
Sack EPA
-1.95
-7.90
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
114
Penalty EPA
--
-10.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U