BALRavens
13-4
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
17 mph
31
PITSteelers
12-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
8
7
0
3
18
Steelers
7
0
14
10
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
126
263
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
2.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.06
Passing Yards
91
192
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.02
Rushing Yards
35
71
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
1.9
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.43
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-10.67
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-34
-34
Sack EPA
-6.56
-12.90
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
74
93
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-7.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.6
Home QB Adjustment
+49.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+49.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U