BALRavens
1-0
33
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
016
HOUTexans
0-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
11
3
10
27
Texans
0
10
0
6
16
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
304
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
6.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.20
Passing Yards
177
253
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.19
Rushing Yards
230
51
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.06
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-22
Sack EPA
-6.28
-4.52
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
21
22
Penalty EPA
-1.59
-2.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
-31.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
14
32
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U