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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ texans week 14, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-4
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
28
HOUTexans
5-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
0
28
Texans
0
7
6
15
28

Spread

BAL logo
-3

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
253
491
Total Plays
62
87
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.03
Passing Yards
190
380
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
31/63(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.06
Rushing Yards
63
111
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
28
Passing 1st downs
13
21
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
53%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.09
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-45
-15
Sack EPA
-8.39
-4.44
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
15
51
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-5.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
09/26
7.5
92
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
7.2
91
11/21
2.4
65
11/28
2.3
64
12/02
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
18
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
21
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
32
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
4
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
7
W
L
O
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-7
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
W
O
11/28
20
W
W
U
12/02
-10
L
L
O