BALRavens
8-4
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
028
HOUTexans
5-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
0
28
Texans
0
7
6
15
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
491
Total Plays
62
87
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.03
Passing Yards
190
380
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
31/63(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.06
Rushing Yards
63
111
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
28
Passing 1st downs
13
21
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
53%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.09
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-45
-15
Sack EPA
-8.39
-4.44
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
15
51
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
21
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
32
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
4
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U