BALRavens
10-5
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
02
HOUTexans
9-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
7
14
0
31
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
211
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
7.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.35
Passing Yards
181
153
Comp/Att
11/17(65%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.57
Rushing Yards
251
58
Rush Attempts
43
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
16
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.22
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-3
-37
Sack EPA
-1.05
-10.21
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
49
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
Texans+6.5
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,678
Home Field
+59.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-61.6
Home QB Adjustment
-22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+39.3
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-130.9
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+39.3
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
16
21
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U