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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ texans week 17, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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BAL logo
BALRavens
10-5
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
2
HOUTexans
9-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
7
14
0
31
Texans
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

BAL logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
432
211
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
7.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.35
Passing Yards
181
153
Comp/Att
11/17(65%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.57
Rushing Yards
251
58
Rush Attempts
43
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
16
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.22
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-3
-37
Sack EPA
-1.05
-10.21
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
49
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-4.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+59.3
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-61.6
Home QB Adjustment
-22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+39.4
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
-131.5
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+39.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
2.3
65
10/21
10.1
97
10/27
4.7
78
11/03
6.9
89
11/07
10.8
98
11/17
-1.3
39
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99
12/21
3.3
72
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-22.3
Value
Ptile
10/13
0.6
52
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.0
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
1
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
16
21
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
28
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/03
31
W
W
O
11/07
1
W
L
O
11/17
-2
L
L
U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
17
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
20
W
W
O
10/20
-2
L
W
U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O