BALRavens
4-4
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
23
TENTitans
4-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
0
14
20
Titans
10
6
0
7
23
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
257
Total Plays
77
52
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.02
Passing Yards
268
186
Comp/Att
35/53(66%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.01
Rushing Yards
73
71
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.73
-4.42
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-32
Sack EPA
-2.57
-4.49
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
39
39
Penalty EPA
-7.36
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
-23.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
19
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
1
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
21
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U