BALRavens
3-2
31
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
033
MINVikings
5-0
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
7
21
31
Vikings
14
0
6
13
33
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
426
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
7.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.19
Passing Yards
367
259
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.30
Rushing Yards
81
167
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-4.64
-3.42
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
74
15
Penalty EPA
-5.85
-1.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-1-5
O/U