BALRavens
3-5
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
019
MINVikings
4-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
6
10
8
27
Vikings
7
3
3
6
19
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
365
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
171
245
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
20/43(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.23
Rushing Yards
152
120
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.46
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-3
Sack EPA
-1.61
-1.03
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
62
102
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-10.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+49.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-37.7
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
J. McCarthy
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
24
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U