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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ vikings week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BAL logo
BALRavens
3-5
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
19
MINVikings
4-4
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
6
10
8
27
Vikings
7
3
3
6
19

Spread

BAL logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
323
365
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
171
245
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
20/43(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.23
Rushing Yards
152
120
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.46
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-3
Sack EPA
-1.61
-1.03
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
62
102
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-10.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+49.9
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-37.7
Home QB Adjustment
-20.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
12/21
3.3
72
12/25
9.8
96
01/04
5.8
83
01/11
7.2
91
01/19
4.3
77
09/07
8.0
94
09/14
4.3
79
09/22
1.8
63
09/28
-2.0
36
10/30
4.3
78
J. McCarthy headshot

J. McCarthy

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.2
Value
Ptile
09/08
-0.3
47
09/14
-13.0
0
11/02
-5.6
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Ravens logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
1
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
11
24
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Vikings logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
17
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
14
W
W
U
01/19
-2
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
L
O
09/14
24
W
W
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-17
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-22
L
L
U
01/13
-18
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
38
W
W
O
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
4
W
W
O
10/19
-6
L
L
O
10/23
-27
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
O