NOSaints
4-0
26
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
10 mph
18
CHIBears
3-1
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
6
14
3
3
26
Bears
0
7
3
8
18
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
436
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
5.3
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.07
Passing Yards
283
340
Comp/Att
29/35(83%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.03
Rushing Yards
64
96
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
2.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.24
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-18
Sack EPA
-1.61
-9.66
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-6.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.9
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
6.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
12
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U