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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bears week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
1-5
14
TBD
Soldier Field
49°F
8 mph
26
CHIBears
3-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
49°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
7
0
14
Bears
3
17
3
3
26

Spread

CHI logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
253
386
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.01
Passing Yards
209
164
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.08
Rushing Yards
44
222
Rush Attempts
17
40
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
30%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.89
-2.78
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-9.50
-2.00
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
30
92
Penalty EPA
-2.87
-11.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
134.2
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

S. Rattler headshot

S. Rattler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
10/27
-6.9
9
12/23
-7.0
8
12/29
-4.0
22
01/05
-1.0
42
09/07
-0.9
44
09/14
3.5
76
09/21
0.1
52
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
2.6
70
10/12
0.6
57
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
-3.2
26
12/16
-2.5
31
12/22
6.0
84
12/26
-10.6
1
01/05
1.9
62
09/08
4.5
80
09/14
-2.8
31
09/21
8.3
95
09/28
-3.2
28
10/13
-0.2
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
28
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
4
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
13
RZ Efficiency
19
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-34
L
L
U
12/29
-15
L
L
U
01/05
-8
L
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
L
O
09/21
-31
L
L
O
09/28
-12
L
W
O
10/05
12
W
W
U
10/12
-6
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-25
L
L
O
12/16
-18
L
L
U
12/22
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-3
L
W
U
01/05
2
W
W
O
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
17
W
W
U
09/28
1
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
U