NOSaints
5-8
31
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
5 mph
15
CHIBears
5-8
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
10
7
31
Bears
0
0
0
15
15
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
280
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
6.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.21
Passing Yards
360
155
Comp/Att
29/36(81%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.50
Rushing Yards
83
125
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
19
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
-7.26
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-15
-41
Sack EPA
-3.00
-10.07
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-5.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U