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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bears week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
5-8
31
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
5 mph
15
CHIBears
5-8
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
10
7
31
Bears
0
0
0
15
15

Spread

NO logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
443
280
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
6.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.21
Passing Yards
360
155
Comp/Att
29/36(81%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.50
Rushing Yards
83
125
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
19
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
-7.26
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-15
-41
Sack EPA
-3.00
-10.07
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-5.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
10/30
0.0
49
11/09
1.3
59
11/16
6.6
88
11/24
8.1
92
11/30
8.4
93
12/07
-2.8
30
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
09/28
1.7
63
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
11/09
-4.7
22
11/16
7.2
89
11/23
-4.6
22
11/27
-1.5
39
12/04
7.9
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16

EPA

EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
7
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
10/30
18
W
W
U
11/09
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-17
L
L
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
11/30
3
W
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O
12/04
-13
L
L
O