NOSaints
2-4
14
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
5 mph
34
DENBroncos
3-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
7
14
Broncos
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
530
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.27
Passing Yards
201
--
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.60
Rushing Yards
51
225
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
29
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
8%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.38
-4.08
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.90
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
34
Penalty EPA
-2.48
-4.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+36.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
+11.5
Final Difference
135.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+36.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Broncos Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U