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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ broncos week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
2-4
14
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
5 mph
34
DENBroncos
3-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
7
14
Broncos
7
10
7
10
34

Spread

DEN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
252
530
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.27
Passing Yards
201
--
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.60
Rushing Yards
51
225
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
14
29
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
8%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.38
-4.08
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.90
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
34
Penalty EPA
-2.48
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+36.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
+11.3
Final Difference
135.1
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
12/26
4.8
81
01/01
13.9
99
01/07
11.6
98
01/14
8.7
95
09/09
-1.2
41
09/16
2.1
63
09/23
-1.8
37
09/30
10.4
97
10/07
5.5
85
10/21
10.3
97
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+36.3
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.9
81
12/26
1.0
55
01/02
4.2
77
01/08
3.6
73
09/09
4.2
76
09/17
-5.7
14
09/23
2.2
63
09/30
10.2
96
10/07
8.1
93
10/15
7.0
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Broncos Defense
Saints logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4

EPA

EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
12
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Broncos Offense vs Saints Defense
Broncos logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
4
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
29
W
W
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/07
17
W
W
O
01/14
-4
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/16
-8
L
L
O
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
-1
L
W
O
10/07
7
W
W
O
10/21
7
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-26
L
L
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
W
O
01/14
-35
L
L
O
09/09
12
W
W
O
09/17
-6
L
L
U
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
31
W
W
U
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
11
W
W
O