NOSaints
4-8
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
6-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
7
0
24
Buccaneers
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
291
Total Plays
78
52
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.04
Passing Yards
301
176
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.14
Rushing Yards
87
115
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
2.5
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
71%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
12
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.23
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
95
80
Penalty EPA
-13.06
-8.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Saints+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
101.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U