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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
4-8
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
6-6
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
7
0
24
Buccaneers
0
10
0
7
17

Spread

NO logo
+6

Total

UNDER
52

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
388
291
Total Plays
78
52
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.04
Passing Yards
301
176
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.14
Rushing Yards
87
115
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
2.5
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
71%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
12
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-2.79
-2.23
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
95
80
Penalty EPA
-13.06
-8.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+65.6
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
-27.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
+10.9
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+11.3
Final Difference
100.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
-4.1
21
10/04
6.9
90
10/11
-1.8
37
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
09/27
-1.5
40
10/04
-4.1
21
10/11
-1.0
44
10/25
4.9
81
11/01
0.6
54
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
14
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-5
L
W
O
10/04
6
W
W
U
10/11
-22
L
L
O
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-10
L
L
U
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/11
7
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U