NOSaints
5-7
11
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
9 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
7-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
6
3
0
9
Buccaneers
3
10
0
3
16
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
270
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
5.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
248
166
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.11
Rushing Yards
46
104
Rush Attempts
16
35
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
31%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.41
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-18
Sack EPA
-1.06
-3.16
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
104
65
Penalty EPA
-13.88
-10.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
23.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
28
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U