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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
7-8
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
5 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
8-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
3
3
23
Buccaneers
0
0
0
13
13

Spread

NO logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
310
349
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
4.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.19
Passing Yards
202
292
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.05
Rushing Yards
108
57
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.68
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.20
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.80
-3.18
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
38
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+49.3
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
10/29
4.7
79
11/05
3.0
70
11/12
-4.4
22
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
10/22
-0.5
46
10/26
2.1
64
11/05
2.6
68
11/12
-0.2
48
11/19
-2.5
32
11/26
-4.6
21
12/03
-4.5
22
12/10
-1.2
41
12/17
6.6
89
12/24
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4

EPA

EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
24
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
27
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
10/29
11
W
W
O
11/05
7
W
L
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-3
L
L
U
10/26
-6
L
W
U
11/05
-2
L
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
U
11/19
-13
L
W
U
11/26
-7
L
L
O
12/03
3
W
L
O
12/10
4
W
W
O
12/17
14
W
W
O
12/24
18
W
W
U