NOSaints
7-8
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
5 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
8-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
3
3
23
Buccaneers
0
0
0
13
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
349
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
4.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.19
Passing Yards
202
292
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.05
Rushing Yards
108
57
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.68
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.20
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.80
-3.18
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
38
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+49.4
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
-20.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U