NOSaints
0-3
35
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
8 mph
34
LACChargers
1-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
7
14
35
Chargers
7
17
0
10
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
346
Total Plays
72
67
Yards / Play
3.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
192
308
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.08
Rushing Yards
83
38
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
61%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
11
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-9.41
-11.61
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-2.97
-3.86
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
34
46
Penalty EPA
-3.61
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Chargers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
31
28
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U