NOSaints
3-4
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
3-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
14
7
10
38
Colts
7
13
0
7
27
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
511
371
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
7.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
350
207
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
12.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.05
Rushing Yards
161
164
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-5.00
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-6
Sack EPA
-4.32
-1.94
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
73
30
Penalty EPA
-7.44
-5.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+22.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U