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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ colts week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
3-4
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
3-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
14
7
10
38
Colts
7
13
0
7
27

Spread

NO logo
-2

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
511
371
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
7.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
350
207
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
12.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.05
Rushing Yards
161
164
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-5.00
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-6
Sack EPA
-4.32
-1.94
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
73
30
Penalty EPA
-7.44
-5.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+50.9
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+23.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Value
Ptile
12/08
-6.6
11
12/18
-0.5
49
12/24
-8.8
4
09/10
-1.7
39
09/18
-7.7
9
09/24
-3.8
25
10/01
-5.1
19
10/08
1.8
61
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Value
Ptile
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
12/20
-0.3
44
12/05
1.6
65
01/08
-2.7
33
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16
10/22
6.9
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Colts Defense
Saints logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Colts Offense vs Saints Defense
Colts logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
23
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
10
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/24
-1
L
L
U
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
34
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-17
L
L
U
01/01
-28
L
L
O
01/08
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-10
L
L
O
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O
10/22
-1
L
W
O