NOSaints
4-5
14
TBD
FedExField
61°F
5 mph
47
WASCommanders
3-5
TBD
FedExField
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
0
0
14
Commanders
14
13
10
4
41
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
510
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
6.4
8.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.37
Passing Yards
192
301
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
12.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.69
Rushing Yards
158
209
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
6.3
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.68
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-3.03
-3.34
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
26
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-2.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+94.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
-2.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
28
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U