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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ cowboys week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
1-0
44
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
19
DALCowboys
1-0
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
21
6
3
44
Cowboys
3
13
3
0
19

Spread

NO logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
432
353
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
7.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.43
-0.10
Passing Yards
242
285
Comp/Att
11/16(69%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
15.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.88
-0.25
Rushing Yards
190
68
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
15
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
63%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
80%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.27
-10.73
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-14
Sack EPA
-0.84
-4.87
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-4.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model70.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+47.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
147.0
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Value
Ptile
11/05
3.0
70
11/12
-4.4
22
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
11/19
3.0
69
11/23
9.7
97
11/30
4.8
80
12/10
0.9
55
12/17
-5.0
20
12/24
1.9
62
12/30
1.3
58
01/07
9.0
96
01/14
6.0
86
09/08
-1.5
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Saints logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29

EPA

EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
10
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Cowboys logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
30

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
30
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
31
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
7
W
L
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/31
10
W
W
U
01/07
31
W
W
O
09/08
37
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
23
W
W
P
11/23
35
W
W
O
11/30
6
W
L
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
L
U
12/30
1
W
L
U
01/07
28
W
W
O
01/14
-16
L
L
O
09/08
16
W
W
O