NOSaints
1-0
44
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
019
DALCowboys
1-0
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
21
6
3
44
Cowboys
3
13
3
0
19
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
353
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
7.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.43
-0.10
Passing Yards
242
285
Comp/Att
11/16(69%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
15.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.88
-0.25
Rushing Yards
190
68
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
15
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
63%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
80%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.27
-10.73
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-14
Sack EPA
-0.84
-4.87
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
26
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-4.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.4
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
30
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U