NOSaints
10-1
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
013
DALCowboys
6-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
10
0
10
Cowboys
10
3
0
0
13
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
176
308
Total Plays
49
66
Yards / Play
3.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.13
Passing Yards
111
209
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.06
Rushing Yards
65
99
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.15
-9.53
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-16
-40
Sack EPA
-1.55
-12.07
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
48
80
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-13.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,716
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
13
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U