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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ cowboys week 13, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
10-1
10
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
13
DALCowboys
6-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
10
0
10
Cowboys
10
3
0
0
13

Spread

DAL logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
176
308
Total Plays
49
66
Yards / Play
3.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.13
Passing Yards
111
209
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.06
Rushing Yards
65
99
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.15
-9.53
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-16
-40
Sack EPA
-1.55
-12.07
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
48
80
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-13.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-145
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,714
Home Field
+57.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
-15.4
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
16.4
100
09/30
-3.2
26
10/08
10.6
97
10/21
4.4
77
10/28
-1.2
38
11/04
11.7
98
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
2.4
66
09/23
-8.1
8
09/30
0.9
52
10/07
-4.0
22
10/14
6.8
88
10/21
2.6
67
11/05
-2.5
31
11/11
1.7
60
11/18
-1.3
37
11/22
4.5
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Saints logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
13
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Cowboys logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
7
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
26
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
3
W
L
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
15
W
W
U
10/08
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
U
10/28
10
W
W
U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
37
W
W
O
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
7
W
W
U
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
33
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
11/05
-14
L
L
O
11/11
7
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
W
U
11/22
8
W
W
O