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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
8-2
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
13
ATLFalcons
2-8
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
0
17
Falcons
7
6
0
0
13

Spread

ATL logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
374
355
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
6.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
271
264
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
103
91
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.16
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-1.44
-6.71
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-6.56
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-222
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-5.7
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
4.5
81
09/15
-5.1
19
09/22
5.9
86
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
11/03
1.3
60
11/10
13.0
99
11/17
3.4
73
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
1.7
62
09/15
8.9
94
09/22
2.1
65
09/29
5.9
86
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
10/27
-7.7
9
11/03
-3.0
32
11/10
1.2
59
11/17
-5.4
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31

EPA

EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
15
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
19
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
32
W
W
O
11/17
3
W
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
7
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
U
11/10
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-13
L
L
O