NOSaints
8-2
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
013
ATLFalcons
2-8
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
0
17
Falcons
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
355
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
6.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
271
264
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
103
91
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.16
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-1.44
-6.71
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-6.56
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-222
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
15
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U