NOSaints
5-6
13
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
10-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
6
0
13
Falcons
7
10
0
6
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
283
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
5.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.12
Passing Yards
335
159
Comp/Att
28/50(56%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.16
Rushing Yards
101
124
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
18
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
5
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-21.07
-3.91
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-2.77
-1.03
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-5.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U