NOSaints
9-2
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
4-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
7
0
21
Falcons
3
6
0
7
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
332
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.14
Passing Yards
217
262
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
19/39(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.28
Rushing Yards
207
70
Rush Attempts
36
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
60%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.04
-4.87
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-11
Sack EPA
-7.70
-6.68
Penalties
10
1
Penalty Yards
79
--
Penalty EPA
-8.52
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model66.5%
Spread Pick
Saints-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,808
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+190.7
Home QB Adjustment
-14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-205.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.5
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-205.1
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U