NOSaints
12-0
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
6-6
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
13
7
3
26
Falcons
6
3
7
7
23
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
392
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
303
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.26
Rushing Yards
95
89
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.60
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-1.86
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
59
55
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-6.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
Falcons+10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,695
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-45.9
Home QB Adjustment
-23.9
Away QB Adjustment
+22.0
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
-235.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
C. Redman
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-23.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
24
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
10-0
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U