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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 17, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
6-9
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
17
ATLFalcons
8-7
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
3
20
Falcons
3
14
0
0
17

Spread

NO logo
+6

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
390
414
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
327
Comp/Att
32/43(74%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.38
Rushing Yards
67
87
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
60%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.63
-10.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.19
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
32
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-6.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
-26.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
-26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
101.9
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83
12/21
8.0
94
12/27
8.0
94
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Value
Ptile
10/15
0.4
53
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
8.1
94
11/08
2.3
66
11/22
-1.5
40
11/29
-2.9
29
12/06
-1.5
40
12/13
-3.5
25
12/20
-2.3
34
12/27
3.8
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14

EPA

EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
14
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
29
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
17
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/27
11
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
0-9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-10
L
L
P
10/25
3
W
L
U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/08
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/13
-38
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U