NOSaints
6-9
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
8-7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
3
20
Falcons
3
14
0
0
17
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
414
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
327
Comp/Att
32/43(74%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.38
Rushing Yards
67
87
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
60%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.63
-10.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.19
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
32
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-6.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
Saints+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
102.4
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
17
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
0-9-1
O/U