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  1. nfelo...
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  3. saints @ giants week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-7
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph
52
NYGGiants
7-5
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
1
6
14
0
21
Giants
14
7
14
17
52

Spread

NYG logo
-4

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
487
394
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
7.2
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.25
Passing Yards
345
--
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
142
135
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.52
-14.46
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.39
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
81
55
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-25.6
Market Regression
-36.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-25.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-1.8
37
09/30
10.4
97
10/07
5.5
85
10/21
10.3
97
10/28
-1.4
40
11/05
3.9
74
11/11
4.4
78
11/18
5.5
84
11/25
-1.5
39
11/29
-7.8
7
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.1
81
09/30
4.4
78
10/07
5.1
82
10/14
0.4
52
10/21
0.5
52
10/28
-4.6
21
11/04
-7.6
7
11/11
-7.3
9
11/25
4.8
80
12/03
2.0
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24

EPA

EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
8
22
EPA / Rush
12
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32

EPA

EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
7
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
13
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
-1
L
W
O
10/07
7
W
W
O
10/21
7
W
W
O
10/28
-20
L
L
U
11/05
15
W
W
U
11/11
4
W
W
O
11/18
21
W
W
U
11/25
-10
L
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
29
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
L
U
10/07
14
W
W
O
10/14
23
W
W
U
10/21
4
W
L
U
10/28
5
W
W
O
11/04
-4
L
L
U
11/11
-18
L
L
U
11/25
28
W
W
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U