NOSaints
5-7
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph
52
NYGGiants
7-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
1
6
14
0
21
Giants
14
7
14
17
52
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
487
394
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
7.2
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.25
Passing Yards
345
--
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
142
135
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.52
-14.46
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.39
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
81
55
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-25.6
Market Regression
-29.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-25.6
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
8
22
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U