NOSaints
6-1
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
14 mph
26
NYJJets
4-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
3
20
Jets
3
17
3
3
26
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
338
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
366
140
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
9/20(45%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.07
Rushing Yards
41
198
Rush Attempts
13
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.76
-2.15
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
59
62
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-8.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
-30.2
Final Difference
-139.2
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
19
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U