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  1. nfelo...
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  3. saints @ jets week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
6-1
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
14 mph
26
NYJJets
4-4
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
3
20
Jets
3
17
3
3
26

Spread

NYJ logo
+6

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
407
338
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
366
140
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
9/20(45%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.07
Rushing Yards
41
198
Rush Attempts
13
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.76
-2.15
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
59
62
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-8.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
-30.0
Final Difference
-139.1
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
7.9
92
12/23
13.0
99
12/30
8.4
93
09/08
4.5
81
09/15
-5.1
19
09/22
5.9
86
09/30
12.2
98
10/06
7.6
91
10/13
-0.6
46
10/27
9.0
94
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.0
39
09/12
-12.1
2
09/22
4.7
83
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64
10/13
-7.2
10
10/20
-1.3
43
10/27
-6.6
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Saints logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
11
19
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Jets logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20

EPA

EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
28
28
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
26
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
41
W
W
U
12/23
3
W
W
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/30
21
W
W
O
10/06
8
W
W
U
10/13
-3
L
L
O
10/27
18
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-10
L
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
U
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/12
-3
L
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
-40
L
L
O