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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ packers week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NO logo
NOSaints
2-0
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
10 mph
18
GBPackers
1-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
4
0
0
11
Packers
0
0
0
18
18

Spread

GB logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
252
342
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.10
Passing Yards
175
247
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.04
Rushing Yards
77
95
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.89
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-6.86
-2.53
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
102
90
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-7.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model44.3%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
39.5
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
11/06
0.2
54
11/13
1.8
66
11/20
5.5
87
11/27
3.2
77
12/04
-0.1
52
12/08
-6.6
11
12/18
-0.5
49
12/24
-8.8
4
09/10
-1.7
39
09/18
-7.7
9
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Saints logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
24
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Packers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22

EPA

EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
14
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
17
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-10
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
O
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/05
-1
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
10
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
9
W
W
O
12/19
12
W
W
U
12/25
6
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O