NOSaints
2-0
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
10 mph
18
GBPackers
1-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
4
0
0
11
Packers
0
0
0
18
18
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
342
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.10
Passing Yards
175
247
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
22/45(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.04
Rushing Yards
77
95
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.89
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-6.86
-2.53
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
102
90
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model44.6%
Spread Pick
Packers+1.5
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
38.0
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
17
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U