NOSaints
3-2
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
10 mph
17
GBPackers
4-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
9
10
26
Packers
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
485
260
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
6.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.03
Passing Yards
324
79
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.25
Rushing Yards
161
181
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.21
-1.59
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-0.97
-1.36
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-7.80
-6.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+76.9
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-182.0
Home QB Adjustment
-176.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-176.5
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U