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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ packers week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
3-2
26
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
10 mph
17
GBPackers
4-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
52°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
9
10
26
Packers
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

NO logo
-4

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
485
260
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
6.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.03
Passing Yards
324
79
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.25
Rushing Yards
161
181
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.5
7.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.21
-1.59
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-0.97
-1.36
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-7.80
-6.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-182.0
Home QB Adjustment
-176.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
26
12/11
-6.0
12
12/18
10.6
97
12/24
1.7
62
01/01
1.4
59
09/11
4.6
83
09/17
5.1
84
09/24
5.8
87
10/01
4.0
80
10/15
-1.4
43
B. Hundley headshot

B. Hundley

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-176.5
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Saints logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
3
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Packers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
4
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-15
L
L
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
W
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/17
-16
L
L
O
09/24
21
W
W
O
10/01
20
W
W
U
10/15
14
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
7
W
W
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
W
O
01/22
-23
L
L
O
09/10
8
W
W
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/08
4
W
W
O
10/15
-13
L
L
U