NOSaints
0-2
22
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
69°F
9 mph
27
CARPanthers
2-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
69°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
0
6
16
Panthers
0
10
10
7
27
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
431
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.18
Passing Yards
310
312
Comp/Att
31/39(79%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.44
Rushing Yards
70
119
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
24
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.78
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
-0.57
-1.66
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
55
88
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-8.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+164.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-155.3
Market Regression
+80.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
L. McCown
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-155.3
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
2
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U