nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NO logo
NOSaints
0-2
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
6 mph
13
CARPanthers
2-0
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
7
10
34
Panthers
3
3
7
0
13

Spread

NO logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
362
288
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
6.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.21
Passing Yards
213
156
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.56
Rushing Yards
149
132
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.58
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-1.82
-6.35
Penalties
1
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+62.7
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
11/13
5.4
84
11/17
3.4
75
11/27
10.9
98
12/04
-3.1
26
12/11
-6.0
12
12/18
10.6
97
12/24
1.7
62
01/01
1.4
59
09/11
4.6
83
09/17
5.1
84
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Value
Ptile
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
11/27
-0.5
44
12/11
-6.4
10
12/19
0.6
54
12/24
-8.0
5
01/01
-8.0
5
09/10
-1.6
41
09/17
-4.3
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-2
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/27
28
W
W
O
12/04
-15
L
L
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
W
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/17
-16
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-33
L
L
O
12/11
12
W
W
U
12/19
11
W
W
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-1
L
W
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
6
W
L
U