NOSaints
0-2
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
6 mph
13
CARPanthers
2-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
7
10
34
Panthers
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
288
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
6.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.21
Passing Yards
213
156
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.56
Rushing Yards
149
132
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.58
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-1.82
-6.35
Penalties
1
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U