NOSaints
1-1
14
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
022
CARPanthers
0-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
14
14
Panthers
1
6
0
9
16
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
293
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
6.7
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.08
Passing Yards
342
148
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.19
Rushing Yards
84
145
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.42
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-22
Sack EPA
-1.74
-3.53
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
7-3
O/U