NOSaints
3-1
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
12 mph
27
CARPanthers
1-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
10
3
7
30
Panthers
6
7
7
7
27
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
381
Total Plays
75
54
Yards / Play
5.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.26
Passing Yards
343
219
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.06
Rushing Yards
101
162
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
20
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
71%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
12
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.25
-6.90
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-2.68
-1.64
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
82
65
Penalty EPA
-13.14
-10.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,652
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.6
Home QB Adjustment
+38.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+38.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U