NOSaints
11-2
12
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph
9
CARPanthers
6-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
3
0
6
12
Panthers
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
247
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
4.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.21
Passing Yards
191
149
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.17
Rushing Yards
155
98
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.53
-6.63
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-32
Sack EPA
-2.53
-6.09
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
80
48
Penalty EPA
-10.10
-7.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-182
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,722
Home Field
+41.3
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
8
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U