NOSaints
1-0
24
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
034
OAKRaiders
1-0
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
7
0
7
24
Raiders
0
17
7
10
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
377
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
7.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.38
Rushing Yards
112
116
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.33
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
64%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-5.39
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.27
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
129
13
Penalty EPA
-10.37
-1.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model67.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-165
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
+28.6
Final Difference
-130.3
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
12
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U