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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ rams week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
1-0
9
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
85°F
4 mph
27
LARRams
1-0
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
85°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
3
3
9
Rams
3
3
14
7
27

Spread

LAR logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
244
380
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
187
265
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.28
Rushing Yards
57
115
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-3.84
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-18
Sack EPA
-3.46
-6.22
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
65
Penalty EPA
-10.45
-7.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-18.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-31.0
Final Difference
34.3
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
11/19
8.4
93
12/02
-5.9
13
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Saints logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18

EPA

EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
13
30
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Rams logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
28
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
6
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
3
W
P
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O