NOSaints
1-0
9
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
85°F
4 mph
27
LARRams
1-0
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
85°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
3
3
9
Rams
3
3
14
7
27
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
380
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
187
265
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.28
Rushing Yards
57
115
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-3.84
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-18
Sack EPA
-3.46
-6.22
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
65
Penalty EPA
-10.45
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-18.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U