NOSaints
1-7
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LARRams
5-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
0
0
10
Rams
7
13
7
7
34
Spread
-14.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
438
Total Plays
40
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.21
Passing Yards
167
267
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.37
Rushing Yards
57
171
Rush Attempts
14
43
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.85
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
30
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.17
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-14
Sack EPA
-2.01
-3.23
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
33
32
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-1.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+361
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,337
Home Field
+53.9
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
T. Shough
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
No recent game data available
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
11
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
24
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
24
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U