NOSaints
8-0
28
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
023
LARRams
1-7
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
7
7
28
Rams
0
14
3
6
23
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
434
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
7.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
217
293
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.04
Rushing Yards
203
141
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.43
-4.95
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-2.22
-2.53
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-2.55
-2.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-294
Home nfelo
1,318
Away nfelo
1,675
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
7
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
18
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
30
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
9
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U