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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ rams week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
7-7
22
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
30
LARRams
7-7
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
15
22
Rams
7
10
10
3
30

Spread

LAR logo
-4

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
341
458
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.08
Passing Yards
306
325
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.44
Rushing Yards
35
133
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.62
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-3
Sack EPA
-5.86
-1.41
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-3.51
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+61.5
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/08
1.8
61
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
10/29
4.7
79
11/05
3.0
70
11/12
-4.4
22
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
10/01
1.3
58
10/08
-2.1
34
10/15
-2.9
29
10/22
-3.0
29
10/29
-1.9
37
11/19
-3.9
25
11/26
5.8
85
12/03
7.1
91
12/10
4.4
78
12/17
1.8
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Saints logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
24
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Rams logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22

EPA

EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
8
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
8
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
34
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
10/29
11
W
W
O
11/05
7
W
L
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-23
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
23
W
W
O
12/03
17
W
W
O
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U