NOSaints
7-7
22
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
030
LARRams
7-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
15
22
Rams
7
10
10
3
30
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
458
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.08
Passing Yards
306
325
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.44
Rushing Yards
35
133
Rush Attempts
16
32
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.62
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-3
Sack EPA
-5.86
-1.41
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-3.51
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+61.7
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
24
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
3
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U