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  1. nfelo...
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  3. saints @ ravens week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
10-3
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
34°F
12 mph
30
BALRavens
9-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
34°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
7
24
Ravens
7
14
3
6
30

Spread

BAL logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
269
356
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
148
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.22
Rushing Yards
27
208
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.03
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-4.45
-4.81
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
68
68
Penalty EPA
-9.44
-7.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
34.7
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
4.1
76
10/10
-1.3
42
10/17
5.9
87
10/24
-2.0
37
10/31
5.9
87
11/07
4.3
77
11/21
9.0
96
11/25
-0.2
47
12/05
5.8
86
12/12
1.6
58
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Value
Ptile
10/03
2.0
61
10/10
1.5
57
10/17
5.2
84
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Saints logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3

EPA

EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Ravens logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18

EPA

EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
22
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/24
-13
L
L
O
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/07
31
W
W
U
11/21
15
W
W
O
11/25
3
W
L
O
12/05
4
W
L
O
12/12
18
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
3
W
W
U
10/10
14
W
W
O
10/17
-3
L
P
U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O