NOSaints
10-3
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
34°F
12 mph
30
BALRavens
9-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
34°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
7
24
Ravens
7
14
3
6
30
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
356
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
148
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.22
Rushing Yards
27
208
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.03
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-4.45
-4.81
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
68
68
Penalty EPA
-9.44
-7.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Ravens-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
35.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
9
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U