NOSaints
1-1
33
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
8 mph
27
SEASeahawks
2-0
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
1
7
7
6
21
Seahawks
7
0
0
20
27
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
514
Total Plays
51
76
Yards / Play
5.2
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.19
Rushing Yards
88
108
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-2.65
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
70
53
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-3.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+97.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-92.0
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-92.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
7
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U