NOSaints
4-7
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
15 mph
32
PITSteelers
7-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
14
7
35
Steelers
3
3
7
19
32
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
542
Total Plays
54
84
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.16
Passing Yards
250
439
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
32/60(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.16
Rushing Yards
143
103
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
36
Passing 1st downs
13
25
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
-0.57
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
77
28
Penalty EPA
-8.25
-6.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
7
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U