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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ steelers week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
4-7
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
15 mph
32
PITSteelers
7-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
14
7
35
Steelers
3
3
7
19
32

Spread

NO logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
393
542
Total Plays
54
84
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.16
Passing Yards
250
439
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
32/60(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.16
Rushing Yards
143
103
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
36
Passing 1st downs
13
25
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
-0.57
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
77
28
Penalty EPA
-8.25
-6.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
10/30
0.0
49
11/09
1.3
59
11/16
6.6
88
11/24
8.1
92
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-3.9
27
09/21
3.8
76
09/28
3.1
71
10/05
-0.8
44
10/12
-4.2
25
10/20
1.6
62
10/26
22.7
100
11/02
10.0
96
11/09
0.0
49
11/17
-5.2
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense
Saints logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
7
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense
Steelers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29

EPA

EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
19
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
10/30
18
W
W
U
11/09
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-17
L
L
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-20
L
L
U
09/21
18
W
W
O
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
8
W
W
U
10/12
-21
L
L
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/26
17
W
W
O
11/02
20
W
W
O
11/09
-7
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
O