NOSaints
-
19
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
029
MINVikings
-
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
3
3
10
19
Vikings
3
13
3
10
29
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
470
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
5.8
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
284
341
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.66
Rushing Yards
60
129
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-5
Sack EPA
-1.63
-1.21
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
52
50
Penalty EPA
-9.46
-7.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U