NOSaints
10-3
42
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
020
MINVikings
2-11
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
14
14
7
42
Vikings
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
573
207
Total Plays
79
54
Yards / Play
7.3
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
102
Comp/Att
32/41(78%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.24
Rushing Yards
161
105
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
36
12
Passing 1st downs
23
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
73%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.93
-1.58
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-2.67
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
84
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-15.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-226
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,672
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+30.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-185.1
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
6
16
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U