SEASeahawks
4-2
6
TBD
Candlestick Park
80°F
15 mph
13
SF49ers
4-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
80°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
0
0
6
49ers
3
0
7
3
13
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
313
Total Plays
54
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
115
138
Comp/Att
9/23(39%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.05
Rushing Yards
136
175
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.85
-3.23
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-2
Sack EPA
-1.20
-1.66
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
-1.00
-6.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
5
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
15
27
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U