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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 7, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
4-2
6
TBD
Candlestick Park
80°F
15 mph
13
SF49ers
4-2
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
80°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
0
0
6
49ers
3
0
7
3
13

Spread

SEA logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
251
313
Total Plays
54
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.01
Passing Yards
115
138
Comp/Att
9/23(39%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.05
Rushing Yards
136
175
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.85
-3.23
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-2
Sack EPA
-1.20
-1.66
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
-1.00
-6.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
0.8
55
09/24
0.1
50
09/30
-7.8
7
10/07
-2.5
33
10/14
4.3
77
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
-1.5
39
01/01
1.9
66
01/14
5.7
85
01/22
0.1
53
09/09
0.9
56
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3

EPA

EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
5
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
15
27
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
1
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
16
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
17
W
W
O
12/18
24
W
W
O
12/24
-2
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
L
O
09/09
-4
L
L
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/24
2
W
W
U
09/30
-6
L
L
U
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
1
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
2
W
W
U
01/01
7
W
L
O
01/14
4
W
W
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
P
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
34
W
W
U
10/07
42
W
W
O
10/14
-23
L
L
U