SEASeahawks
2-4
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
75°F
8 mph
3
SF49ers
2-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
75°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
7
10
0
3
20
49ers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
142
Total Plays
70
45
Yards / Play
5.5
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.30
Passing Yards
212
81
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.47
Rushing Yards
176
61
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
8
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.83
--
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-23
-43
Sack EPA
-5.91
-5.86
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
50
33
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-4.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
-141.6
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
15
21
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U