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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
8-5
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
11 mph
26
SF49ers
3-10
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Seahawks
6
7
0
10
0
23
49ers
7
10
3
3
3
26

Spread

SF logo
+4

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
385
351
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.14
Passing Yards
217
257
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.32
Rushing Yards
168
94
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
47%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.49
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
-18
Sack EPA
-6.22
-2.90
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
148
66
Penalty EPA
-13.78
-6.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-76.0
Home QB Adjustment
-75.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+36.5
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
09/30
-0.9
40
10/07
1.6
58
10/14
2.7
68
10/28
5.4
82
11/04
1.2
54
11/11
5.1
81
11/15
1.7
59
11/25
4.5
77
12/02
1.7
59
12/10
-4.9
18
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-75.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
4.6
78
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
5
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
3
18
RZ Efficiency
6
26
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
32
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/14
24
W
W
U
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
-8
L
L
U
11/11
-5
L
W
O
11/15
3
W
P
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
27
W
W
O
12/10
14
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
-3
L
W
O
10/21
-29
L
L
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/01
31
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
W
U