SEASeahawks
9-8
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
11 mph
41
SF49ers
13-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
17
0
6
23
49ers
10
6
7
18
41
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
507
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.2
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.41
Passing Yards
228
326
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.73
Rushing Yards
104
181
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
46%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.26
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-9.00
-1.53
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
--
28
Penalty EPA
--
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,689
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.0
Home QB Adjustment
-73.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-73.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
27
20
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U